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Following Al-Qaeda's footsteps of global jihad from Afghanistan - by Erik Hacker, Researcher at SCENOR
KEY INSIGHTS:
Zeitgeist: Recent global and European political developments (Israel-Hamas war and Quran-burning incidents in Scandinavian countries) have revitalised the European jihadist movement. However, there are currently no realistic opportunities for newly mobilised jihadists in the West to join a foreign terrorist group abroad. That incentivises domestic terrorist attacks in the West.
ISKP is about to fill the global jihadist power vacuum: Despite the current sociopolitical environment favouring jihadist mobilisation, major foreign terrorist organisations known for their international capabilities struggle to take advantage of that. Da'esh has failed to produce a charismatic leader and continues to focus on local insurgency. Meanwhile, Al-Qaeda does not appear to have the necessary appeal in the West to orchestrate attacks.
ISKP's primary objective:
The primary objective is to establish a caliphate in Afghanistan and surrounding countries, with the Taliban regime continuing to be its most significant obstacle. Attacks against the West are merely an instrument to advance ISKP's regional goal in Southeast Asia.
ISKP has the following four incentives to attack the West:
(1) Weaken and delegitimise the Taliban regime on the international stage because it has not lived up to its counterterrorism promises
(2) Increase financial and operational support from Da'esh by maintaining the Da'esh brand as the dominant global jihadist entity
(3) Raise the group's status and appeal in the global jihadi movement and increase the inflow of donations and foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs)
(4) Provoke anti-Muslim sentiment in Western societies or even retaliatory strikes
ISKP uses the following three-pronged strategy for its external operations in the West:
- Inspire attacks via multi-lingual propaganda
- "Virtual planner”, which consists of assisting or instructing attacks on the West by local supporters through online support
- Dispatching trained operatives who are smuggled into Europe via Turkey and Ukraine
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